| Update
23/10/02 21:00 |
When
will it snow?
11th of November, up to 50cm overnight.
| |
| The
snow that fell on the 18th looked like a decent
covering, and it was. Nothing however could contend
with the warm spell we are currently going through.
Temperatures are high, over the weekend it was 16C
in Les Gets at 1515m. Even Avoriaz at 1800m has
thawed out very fast. |
| |
However
this type of weather is the norm for this period
of the year, it is still autumn and we have to remember
this. By looking at the weather over the past 3
years we can confirm that temperatures currently
(Min of 5C Max of 8C for 1000m) are actually around
average. However even with the weather around average
it is still a good indication to the season to come.
Snowfalls during October are not very frequent and
do not generally equate to any snow staying for
any length of time. The snow that fell on the 18th
of October fell to 1100m. From my data (which only,
unfortunately goes back
to 1999) this is the lowest recorded snow line for
October. |
| |
So,
what does this mean? Could we be experiencing an
effect of El Nino? Or are we just having an early
flurry before the season begins?
It is widely accepted that the 1999/2000 season
was an El Nino year for the Alps. If we compare
the weather now to the weather to 1999 in October
we can see if there is any connection with this
season that has also been reputed to be an El Nino
year. In October 1999 the lowest snow fell to was
1850m which, ironically is today the 23rd of October!
There were only three days of snowfall but only
the tops of the mountains got to see any of it as
the other two days had a snow line of 1900m and
1950m. This October however there has so far (remember
we are only two thirds of the way through the month)
been snow down to a level of 1100m and there has
been snow on four
days. This *should* mean that we are due at least
two more days of snow this month. |
| So
after all that, when does the snow really start
to fall? When should we expect the base to begin
taking shape?
|
| |
| Once
again looking back over the past three years I have
now earnt myself a rather large smile. During November
1999 a total of 92cm of snow fell. Compare this
to 2000 and 2001 with 23.5cm and 21cm respectively
and you'll see what I mean. If this is truly an
El Nino year the beginning of the season should
be good. However, even though we could get up to
92cm of snow falling how much should we expect on
the ground? Well about 25cm by the middle/end of
November if 1999 is the year to go by. However if
we're looking at the other two years as well then
it could be the end of December before we get enough
to really board on. For the 2000 season there was
just 7cm on the 28th of December. 2001 wasn't quite
that bad with 21cm as a base after some heavy snowfall
22nd of December. |
| |
I would
hope for the beginning of December, maybe.... The
10th and 11th
getting around 50cm snowfall which will probably
be at least a 15-20cm base,
just in time for Joe and his mates to arrived on
the 12th oh and obviously
that night another 50cm. |
| |
| NB.
The report above is referring to the lower slopes
of the Portes Du Soleil. Data used to generate the
report was taken from here
readings were taken at 1030m in the Portes Du Soleil
Valley |
|
